The date of a much-anticipated meeting arrived this week and passed with little to no fanfare. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) held meetings on July 11-12 in Vilnius, Lithuania. The highlight of the meeting appeared to be Türkiye dropping its opposition to the admission of Sweden to the group. However, examining the details, it appears that there may be no actual agreement in place.
Apparently, President Joe Biden, who needs some “big wins” with the United States presidential election fast approaching, promised the president of Türkiye, Recep Erdoğan, a $10+ billion dollar loan through the International Monetary Fund (IMF), if Türkiye would drop its opposition to Sweden’s admission to NATO. While Türkiye is in financially dire straits and needs this loan, listening to the Turks, it appears that they still expect Sweden to change their laws regarding terrorists and expect Sweden to extradite a few that Türkiye would like to prosecute. In other words, in Türkiye’s view, they have never been opposed to the admission of Sweden, so long as Sweden fulfills all of the condition that Türkiye has put forward. Thus, upon closer inspection, nothing has changed with respect to the admission of Sweden to the military alliance.
The elephant in the room, however, is, of course, Ukraine, which has also been demanding admission, or, at a minimum, a clear pathway toward admission to the alliance. NATO, however, remains divided on the admission of Ukraine. In the past couple of weeks, the United States has fed the press its reasons. The first is that the Biden administration does not believe that Ukraine is communicating its strategy to them. The second is that Ukraine is taking unapproved and unauthorized actions that threaten to widen the war such as sending drones to Moscow, attacking the Kerch Strait bridge, and, at least according to the Biden Administration, blowing up the Nord Stream pipelines. In other words, the Biden Administration believes that Ukraine is a loose and dangerous cannon. Ukraine’s designated purpose is simply to weaken Russia militarily before the alliance takes on China.
Thus, the optics of the event were not what the alliance had in mind. Note this picture of President Zelenskyy, standing alone, as the jovial dress party of warmongers appears to be in full swing around him. A number of photoshop versions of this photograph are obviously making the rounds on social media.
Regardless, it should be clear to Ukraine that they are not wanted in the alliance, and their usefulness to NATO ends when they cease to kill Russians. Raise a toast: “To the last Ukrainian!”